The Rise of GLP-1 Drugs and Initial Industry Concerns
New USDA data analysis highlights a surprising trend: snack sales are holding steady despite the surge in GLP-1 drugs for weight loss. Since these medications were approved for obesity treatment in 2021, prescriptions among adults have climbed from 0.5% to just over 2% by 2024, according to FAIR Health data analyzed by the USDA Office of the Chief Economist.
This uptick in GLP-1 drug use—medications like semaglutide and tirzepatide that mimic the GLP-1 hormone to suppress appetite, slow gastric emptying, and promote satiety—sparked significant concern among food and beverage industry stakeholders. The fear was that reduced hunger would lead to slimmer waistlines and lighter grocery carts, dramatically dampening sales of snacks and other indulgent foods.
GLP-1 drugs work by activating receptors in the brain and gut, signaling fullness even after smaller meals. This mechanism not only aids weight loss but also alters eating behaviors, prompting questions about long-term effects on food consumption. However, the data does not yet capture 2025 figures or off-label use without prescriptions, suggesting actual adoption may be higher. For context, a large RAND survey estimates about 12% of US adults have used GLP-1 weight-loss drugs at some point, while Truveta Research pegs nearly 2.2 million patients prescribed these drugs from January 2019 to December 2025.
Early Evidence of Grocery Spending Impacts
The appetite suppression from GLP-1 drugs did influence spending initially. A study by Cornell University and Numerator, published in late December, found households with GLP-1 users cut average grocery spending by 5.3%, rising to 8% among higher-income households. Notably, "the magnitude of the reduction becomes smaller over time," indicating potential adaptation.
An earlier EY-Parthenon analysis warned of broader effects, estimating diet changes linked to GLP-1 drug use could lead to upwards of $12 billion in snack sales lost over the next decade. These projections fueled industry handwringing, but real-world sales data tells a different story so far.
Understanding GLP-1 Mechanisms and Dietary Shifts
For patients on GLP-1 therapy, these drugs reduce caloric intake by curbing cravings, particularly for high-sugar and high-fat foods. Clinical background shows users often report less interest in large meals, favoring smaller, nutrient-dense options. This aligns with why initial grocery dips occurred but stabilized—users may redistribute calories rather than eliminate snacking entirely.
Practical guidance for GLP-1 patients: Discuss dietary changes with your doctor, focusing on protein-rich, high-fiber foods to maintain muscle mass and manage side effects like nausea. Tools like Shotlee can help track symptoms, medication adherence, and evolving snack preferences for personalized adjustments.
USDA Data Reveals Snack Sales Resilience
Presented on Feb. 19 at the USDA Agriculture Outlook Forum, the agency's analysis shows snack units stable at slightly more than 10 billion per year in 2024—about the same as 2020. There was a small uptick in late 2022, but the trajectory remains steady, even as GLP-1 prescriptions grew.
"I was surprised to see that when we think about the long-term trend towards GLP-1s' potential for less food consumption overall - we don't see that being born out in the data, just yet," said USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez.
"My theory here was that we would look and we would see some net change in food consumption, but ... surprisingly to me, at least, the number of units sold has remained roughly the same," he explained. Benavidez noted the data excludes price adjustments that could boost accessibility if demand softens and doesn't cover all food categories.
